The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't - Nate Silver - Google Books

https://books.google.de/books?id=SI-VqAT4_hYC&pg=PA69

"One of the more momentous books of the decade."—The New York Times Book ReviewNate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all…